Todd Stern comes across at press conferences as a mild-mannered fellow. But it's safe to assume that in order to rise to the role of U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change, he's had to be an ambitious and determined man.
These terms ably shorthand the positions he has been espousing at the Copenhagen talks: Ambitiously determined to maintain American exceptionalism when it comes to international climate politics. Is the Obama administration's need to play ball with Congress perpetuating schisms in the international climate negotiations?
One answer lies in the Obama administration's position on greenhouse gas pollution reductions. It wants to base U.S. targets on 2005 pollution levels. The industrialized nations that signed the Kyoto climate accord in 1997, however, based their reduction quotas on 1990 emissions levels.
Handing the U.S. what it wants without a fight, 12 years after it failed to sign on to the treaty, smacks many other countries of rewarding America for arriving late to the party.
A lower baseline would mean deeper cuts -- but at his Copenhagen press conferences, Stern has noted that the administration is keeping in mind not just climate science, but also "the politics of getting something done."
Translated, this means that the climate legislation that passed out of the U.S. House this year set a target of cutting emissions 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. The Senate is very unlikely to pass a bill with anything greater.
So this is the number that the administration has brought to Copenhagen.
Rather than cop frankly to this Congressional leash (which the entire world seems to understand anyway), Stern projected the administration's problem outwards, saying today that "it's only in the hermetically sealed world of global climate change negotations that a baseline year of 1990 to measure the reduction of emissions from now to 2020 would treated as sacrosanct."
He went on to argue, complete with numbers, for a 17 percent cut below 2005 levels by 2020, with plans to accelerate the pace to 30 percent by 2025 and 40 percent by 2030 (18 and 33 percent of 1990 levels, respectively). Sounds good; but the Obama administration is, at best, in a position to have a direct hand in climate policy through 2020. The years 2025 and 2030 will be in another president's hands.
Stern said emphatically that the 17 percent cut would result in tangible reductions comparable to those already commited to by the European Union.
Stern also stated the U.S. remains steadfast on not entering into a new, "son of Kyoto" climate treaty that would legally bind industrialized nations to meet targets for greenhouse gas reductions while letting developing nations off the hook -- particularly industrializing giants like China and India.
"I think they're doing a great deal" to stem fossil fuel emissions, Stern said today. But for the U.S. to back an agreement out of these talks, these nations will have to put their promises on paper.
Domestic U.S. politics is again forcing the administration's hand: The Senate has proven intractable on reforming climate policy as long as China (and more recently India) are let off the hook for their greenhouse gas pollutions.
Then again, the science demands it too; China has surpassed the U.S. as the top greenhouse polluter, and India is working its way up. These countries must go low carbon fast to stave off the worst of global warming's impacts.
(China's current position is that with tens of millions still living in poverty, it should continue to receive Kyoto accord-style concessions to poorer countries.)
Stern reported having "useful conversations" today with a Chinese counterpart and others, and confirmed that President Obama has been working the phones in advance of his arrival in Copenhagen on Dec. 18.
"I'm expecting today -- I'm expecting every day -- to be a long day," said Stern. "I have to say, the parties are quite far apart on a fair number of issues."
Photo: Todd Stern speaking to the press at the United Nations climate conference in Copenhagen, Dec. 2009. Credit: Emily Gertz.
See more of Emily's reports from Copenhagen as part of OnEarth's ongoing coverage.
