Recent Trends of Rural-Urban Migration and Population Explosion

       In the developing world, urbanization is progressing mainly due to the lack of demand for work in agriculture and the increasing man-to-land ratio as well as the expanding industrial sector in urban areas. India’s advancing agricultural technology, comparable to that of the Western world, decreases the need for human labor. The increasing population in stressed agricultural sectors results in increasing proportions of marginal workers and unemployed individuals in rural areas as a whole. Marginalization and depreciation ultimately lead to the rise in the number of rural migrants to urban areas. While the first half of the twentieth century shows a gradual increase in the rate of urbanization in India, the degree of urbanization intensified from 1951 onward. From 1951 to 1991, India’s urban population more than tripled from 58 million to 216 million and the fraction of people living in urban area rose from 16 percent in 1951 to 26 percent in 1991 (Singh, 2001). It is projected that over the next 40 years, India will undergo one of history’s most dramatic settlement transitions, as urban populations grow from 300 million to more than 700 million (Hughes et al., 2006). By the middle of the twenty-first century, India may have both the largest rural and urban populations in the world (Revi, 2010). This unprecedented level of urbanization and population explosion as a whole in such a short period of time has tremendous import when assessing climate change vulnerability and mitigation and adaptation options. While other regions in the world may have greater risks to natural hazards, they may be in a better position when it comes to creating more sustainable development. India’s climate risk exposure is compounded by aberrant growth and lack of effective governance. In a recent article, “India’s high-stakes urban challenge,” the explosive population growth in cities is addressed:

       India’s cities are expanding on a larger scale and at a faster pace than ever before. To date, though, the country has avoided dealing with the hard questions about how best to manage its massive urbanization. The policy vacuum may lead to worsening urban decay, poor quality of life for citizens, and a reluctance among investors to commit funds to projects in India’s urban centers (Dobbs et al., 2010).

      The rural to urban transformation often fails to produce the types of outcomes envisioned by migrants. For, the process of social adaptation and assimilation is slow, the cost of living induces high levels of poverty, there is a severe problem in creating new urban livelihoods in an era of globalization, and there are desolate living conditions for the poor in cities (Revi, 2010). It is expected that climate change will amplify the rate of rural-urban migration over the next couple of decades. Climate change will exacerbate the problems caused by water extraction.

                                              The retreating glaciers. 

         The Himalayan glaciers are estimated to supply 30-40% of the water in the Ganges, which is desperately needed in the dry season prior to the monsoon rains (WWF, 2007, WWF, 2005). Water withdrawal poses a serious threat to the Ganges and as the influx of water from the glaciers decline, the amount supplying agriculture will potentially be allocated to industrial and domestic use.  The Indus River is also dangerously sensitive to climate change due to the high portion of its flow derived from glaciers (WWF, 2007). In addition, the basin is already experiencing acute water scarcity due to overextraction and salt-water intrusion stemming from agricultural practices. Glacial retreat, greater monsoon variability, endemic drought, flooding and resource conflict will magnify the ongoing agrarian crisis in rural India and continue to force migration (Zickfield et al., 2005). In their study of Indian agriculture and climate sensitivity, Kavi Kumar and Parikh assessed the strong relationship between farm level net-revenue and climate variables in India using cross-sectional evidence and showed the correlation between weather and farmers’ income (Kavi Kumar et al., 2001). This study has important policy implications. The destitution of farmers caused a suicide epidemic in the 1990s. Though there are programs established to assist farmers in alleviating their debts, most of them are highly ineffective.

            Instead of taking a passive stance, the government should augment rural development programs to create employment opportunities in the villages themselves. Rural economies can be uplifted by increasing opportunities for non-agricultural employment. As Eakin demonstrated in Weathering Risks in Rural Mexico, improving the adaptive capacity to future risks and uncertainties requires providing societies with greater flexibility. To minimize the effect of unexpected personal inconveniences, successful farmers in Mexico have learned to adapt to climate by maximizing livelihood/agriculture options available. This is not to say that these more successful farmers do not face the same climatic and economic impact as other farmers. However, they decrease their vulnerability by increasing their alternatives (Eakin, 2006). Like in Mexico, many people in rural India never have the opportunity to obtain an education and thus, they are often stuck in one field of labor. J.P Singh emphasizes the lack of governmental action and its contribution to the problems faced by rural people: “Since the rural economy has been neglected for years and public investment has been declining in agriculture for the last 15 years, most Indian villages do not possess basic minimum infrastructure for civic amenities, transportation and communication. Consequently the prospective investors are put off and thus the unemployed rural youth are pushed towards cities to eke out their living” (Singh, 2001). Unless proactive measures are undertaken, farmers will not be able to escape the horrors of the well-known Indian proverb: “Indian farmer is born in debt, lives in debt, dies in debt, bequeaths debt and indebtedness is his only companion, from cradle to graveyard.” Indebtedness, insecurity due to crop failures and unexpected natural disasters will only be aggravated by climate change.

            As a result of multiplying population in cities, the problems of space and housing for all have intensified. Slums have become an emblem of Indian metropolises. The proportion of the population in towns and cities living in slums has increased from 18.8 percent of the urban population in 1981 to 21.5 percent in 1991. Slums and shantyhouses have been built to accommodate new migrants. More than two-thirds of slum residents lack access to safe drinking water and face severe health concerns due to poor sanitation and overcrowding. In fact, the most vulnerable populations in India are “slum, squatter and migrant populations resident in traditional and informal settlements, which are often located in the most vulnerable locations” (Revi, 2010). Without effective social and health care services, they suffer the most from epidemics and hazards.