The first climate deadline of 2010 is nearly here.  If most of the major greenhouse polluters hit the mark, the prospects for attaining a legally binding treaty in Cancun this November will seem brighter.  

If not, they probably won't seem any worse.

Under the "Copenhagen Accord" created at last month's climate talks in Denmark, participating nations are expected to submit their greenhouse gas reduction plans through 2020 to the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat -- the office that manages the international climate treaty -- by January 31.

As it is a non-binding political agreement, the only pressure to conform to the deadline is that of maintaining international credibility and influence in climate negotiations.  

(As for pressure to avert the worst of global warming's disastrous impacts, many important nations have demonstrably held fast against it since the Framework Convention on Climate Change took effect in 1994.)

According to the office of the Climate Change Secretariat, the list of national targets will be released all at once, and may be available online next week. But there's no firm date for releasing the data -- reflecting perhaps that the Secretariat  stated last week that this deadline is actually "flexible".

What's the status of the five nations who originated the accord?

After meeting in New Delhi on January 24, the environment ministers of Brazil, South Africa, India and China (nicknamed the BASIC nations) announced that they would have their carbon mitigation plans in on time. The BASIC ministers also called upon rich nations to deliver on the agreement they made in Copenhagen: establishing a $10 billion "fast start-up" fund this year to aid poorer nations in adapting to changing climate conditions, as well as developing low-carbon industries.

Based on past public statements, the promised greenhouse mitigation actions include:

South Africa: Cuts in emissions of 34 percent below projected levels -- but in the context of a bigger international aid and mitigation agreement. 

Brazil: Reducing greenhouse emissions from 36-39 percent of projected amounts. The higher end of the proposed cuts would scale back Brazil's emissions to their 1994 levels.

India: Reducing "carbon intensity" by 20-25 percent.

Carbon intensity is understood to mean the amount of carbon dioxide created (that is, energy used) per unit of economic output. So pledging to a cut in carbon intensity essentially means promising to take steps toward improved energy efficiency, so that greenhouse gas pollution will rise more slowly in relation to economic growth. But they'll still continue to rise.

China: The world's most prodigious greenhouse polluter pledged last year to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45 percent below the levels that would occur under "business as usual" industrial activity. So as with India, it is not actually promising to level off or reduce emissions, but to be more energy-efficient.

In a very worthwhile story on coal and climate change, aired today on NPR's Morning Edition, Christopher Joyce reports that China's motivations for getting off coal are compelling and multi-faceted. "The coal in China is mined primarily in the northwest of the country, but the demand for that coal is in the east," Trevor Houser, with the New York research firm RHG, told Joyce, "and getting that coal from the mine to the power plant on the coast is a challenging and expensive undertaking."

As for the United States, it's an understatement to say that whatever may be going on behind the scenes, global warming matters are being kept in the background of the White House's public agenda.

At Copenhagen, President Obama said the nation would cut its greenhouse pollution by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 -- adding up to just 4 percent below 1990 levels. The White House has pinned most of its hopes on the creation of a nationwide market to cap and trade carbon credits to attain those cuts; political wrangling in the Senate makes it unclear right now when that will happen.

As well, US participation in an international climate accord hangs on whether major developing economies like China and India will agree to outside monitoring of their mitigation efforts. The US is also demanding transparency on the progress and impact of projects funded by climate finance aid. Some noises in those directions were made in Copenhagen, and will likely continue in the run-up to November's climate conference in Mexico.

Of other major greenhouse gas emitters:

Australia has just reitereated its promise to cut emissions by at least 5 percent below 2000 levels. This equate to 3 percent below 1990 levels, the benchmark set under the original international climate agreement.

Now Australia is waiting to see how gutsy other nations will be with their cuts before pledging to greater reductions of up to 25 percent below 2000 levels (23 percent under 1990 levels).

The European Union (with 27 member nations), in the person of current EU president/Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, is holding to its promise of emissions cuts of 20 percent below,1990 levels, rising to 30 percent if other nations make stronger promises.

Japan has also underscored the offer it made in the run-up to Copenhagen: cutting greenhouse pollution 25 percent below 1990 levels, contingent upon strong commitments from the U.S., China and other top emitters.

Canada said last year that it plans to reduce greenhouse pollution by 20 percent from 2006 levels, but has yet to reiterate goal in the wake of the Copenhagen talks.  The nation says it won't make any promises until the U.S. shows its hand.

Image: Map of anomalous temperatures in 2009.  The deeper the red, the greater the temperature compared to average temperatures recorded between 1951 and 1980 (a common reference period for climate studies).  2009 was the second-warmest year on record, and ended the warmest decade on record.  Source: NASA Earth Observatory; NASA images by Robert Simmon, based on data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Caption by Adam Voiland and Holli Riebeek.