Public engagement in the issue and pressure for legislation has consistently tracked the evolving scientific consensus on the severity of climate change and its likely future impacts, and how this was conveyed in the media and the broader popular culture. By 2007 we thought we had the problem licked: the fourth periodic assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had put the scientific debate to rest; the "on-the-one-hand on-the-other hand" format of media coverage was over and the Exxon-funded climate "skeptics" were put out to pasture; and of course there was the Al Gore movie, the Oscar, and the Nobel Prize that Gore shared with Rajendra Pachauri, head of the IPCC. Case closed.
Wrong. It's clear now that we fell into the ever-treacherous trap of complacency. The climate deniers are back full force, and the reason has very little to do with whether the Democrats have 59 or 60 votes in Congress.
Instead it has more to do with the collapse of serious media reporting on climate change. There are many reasons for this. Most obviously, staff resources at major newspapers have been slashed. But more than that, editors find the topic perplexing: it's so technical, it goes on forever, not that much seems to change, it's depressing, there's only one side to the story. What happened to the conflict? Where's the news?
The likes of Fox News and the Wall Street Journal editorial page stepped delightedly into the vacuum of real reporting. Well, we said, in another bout of complacency, we can always rely on 20-year climate veteran Andy Revkin at the New York Times. Not any longer, and in fact the rot had set in even before he took the Times buyout in December and limited himself to his still-indispensable blog.
The Climategate e-mail "scandal," which erupted on the eve of the Copenhagen climate talks, was the first symptom of the problem. For frustrated editors, here was something new and different, and it was given prominent and prolonged play in the New York Times. In substantive terms, Climategate changed nothing, as my NRDC colleague Dan Lashof pointed out in an excellent blog. But as they say in the biz, the story had legs, and it clearly clouded the debate in Copenhagen and gave fresh energy to the opponents of climate legislation in Washington.
Now comes a front-page story on February 9 by Revkin's successor, Elizabeth Rosenthal, headlined "Skeptics Find Fault With U.N. Climate Panel."
Others have gone into the failings of this article from the point of view of journalistic integrity, pointing out correctly that it does not include comment from one single climate scientist but instead offers a platform to... well, it would be polite to call them "climate skeptics." Lunatic fringe of climate deniers would be more accurate, such as Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, who famously compared NGO demonstrators in Copenhagen to the Hitlerjugend. So I'll do no more than direct you to Joseph Romm's comprehensive critique of Rosenthal's piece on Grist, which among other things suggests that readers write to the Times' public editor, or ombudsman, Clark Hoyt , at public@nytimes.com, to request a serious analysis of the newspaper's recent coverage of climate issues.
Let me focus instead on the actual content of Rosenthal's story—the specific critique of the IPCC's scientific predictions and Pachauri's purported conflicts of interest. Both involve India, and both were topics that I wrote about in my Summer 2009 cover story for OnEarth.
The first concerns the rate of the disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers. The 2007 IPCC fourth assessment report included an estimate that "if the present rate [of melting] continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high (IPCC-speak for 90 percent-plus likely) if the earth keeps warming at the current rate." That assessment was based on an interview that India's leading glaciologist, Syad Iqbal Hasnain, had given to Fred Pearce of the New Scientist magazine in 1999.
Rosenthal herself had earlier reported on criticisms of this assertion in the New York Times, in the immediate aftermath of the Copenhagen conference. Within 24 hours the IPCC acknowledged that citing that figure had been a lapse in its customary review standards.
The IPCC is absolutely right to maintain the highest standards in its internal scientific review procedures. But how significant was the error? Over the past decade, Hasnain has introduced some nuances into his predictions of glacier melt. When I interviewed him in New Delhi last March, he told me that, "If the current trends continue, within 30 to 40 years most of the glaciers will melt out." Some of the difficulty in being more precise, he said, has to do with the fact that so much of the affected region in India, Pakistan and Tibet is off-limits to researchers for national security reasons. But the change in his predictions is simply stated: most of the glaciers are very likely to be gone by 2040 to 2050, rather than all the glaciers are very likely to be gone by 2035. If I were one of the 1.5 billion people in Asia whose survival will be threatened by the disappearance of the Himalayan ice, I think I'd characterize the change between those two predictions as a decline from "absolutely catastrophic" to "truly horrendous."
Hasnain, interestingly, is affiliated with the Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), of which Rajendra Pachauri is president. And that takes us to the second part of the accusation that the climate deniers have leveled against the head of the IPCC—that he has made improper use of the fees he has received from private sector consultancies with the likes of Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse. The egregious Monckton refers to these consultancies as "very substantial and direct and indirect financial vested interests in the matters covered in the climate panel's report."
Pachauri's consultancy fees, in fact, go straight to TERI projects such as Lighting a Billion Lives. LaBL, as it is known, was highlighted at last year's U.S.-India Energy Partnership Summit at Yale, in which NRDC took part. A large part of my OnEarth story dealt with LaBL, which distributes solar lanterns to villagers in India, and is planned for expansion to other parts of the developing world.
Over the years I've seen a lot of NGO development projects around the world, some good, some bad. So I hesitate to use words like "visionary." But this was one case where I genuinely found it appropriate. The idea behind LaBL is very simple: 400 million Indians lack electricity. For domestic lighting they have to rely on kerosene lanterns, which are a serious safety hazard and domestic air pollutant, making them a major cause of infant mortality. These lanterns also use a fossil fuel that is dirtier than any other, pound for pound, in terms of global warming emissions. So LaBL makes clean, safe solar lanterns available to villagers on an affordable fee-for-service basis that is designed not just for humanitarian purposes but to stimulate local economic activity and entrepreneurship at the village level. The program is backed by the likes of GE and Coca-Cola. Visiting remote villages in Rajasthan that were using the lanterns made it clear to me that they had transformed people's lives.
So there's the essence of the charges that the lunatic fringe have leveled against Pachauri and the IPCC: a minor adjustment in predictions of the still profoundly alarming rate of glacier melt in the Himalayas, and a decision to channel consultancy fees into a project that gives tangible aid to the poorest of the poor, rather than accepting them as personal income.
As I thought more about Rosenthal's story, it occurred to me that there was another intriguing dimension to the charges being leveled against Pachauri. TERI is India's most important and credible NGO on climate and energy issues, and future climate policy is a burning political issue in India. So Pachauri is quite exposed in domestic political terms. Together with the United States and China, India has become one of the most critical players in the international debate about a future climate treaty. In Copenhagen, it made some significant commitments to restraining the growth in its carbon emissions, while resisting any mandatory limits. But as Hasnain told me, India's National Action Plan on Climate Change has some substantial shortcomings, notably its prevarication on the rate of, and reasons for, the melting of the Himalayan glaciers.
The domestic pressures on Pachauri and TERI would make an interesting story for a serious reporter, but instead we get Climategate and now Pachaurigate. In the current collapsing media environment, I guess these are what editors, even at the New York Times, now consider good stories.
So I go back to where I started: it's important to demand better from the newspaper of record—but even more important to remember that we can never be lulled into complacency about the magnitude of the task that is still before us.
The problem with climate change is that the actions of the scientist involved. There willingness to petty name calling as in the emails, and overstating the scientific facts. The lack of coverage by MSM is also a factor, people feel since there not reporting this all must be true! I have researched this topic enough to know what parts are true and what is just propaganda! No matter what climate reports are in the media now people will be skeptic of it, thinking to themselves just more alarmist propaganda. One thing I cannot understand is the idea that renewables alone can replace carbon based fuels?
80 windmills=(nameplate)90 megawatts, wind will only produce 35% of nameplate rating.
John E. Amos power Plant in West Virginia 2,933 megawatts
To replace this one coal plant it would take more than 3000 wind turbines!
This is a Northern Hemisphere view.
In the next few weeks farmers are going to be making decisions about what crops to plant for the year. It is looking possible, or even likely that the ground may not be workable until later than usual this spring, and if the arctic oscillation index keeps diving down and staying low for prolonged periods like has been for the past few months, there could be some very late hard frosts.
Farmers in North America, Europe and Asia really need some honest guidance about the real expected length of the coming growing season.
If the season is going to be short farmers need to be ordering and preparing to plant short season crops and food for food and not food for ethanol. Since the food to ethanol is a government sponsored or in some cases a legislated initiative; governments must speak up, loud and clear.
If farmers get bad information, they may well bring in a short or damaged crop. If they do, based on the current world grain reserves, about 250 million people could be starving to death come this time next year.
If elected leaders continue to insist that the planet is getting warmer, and it does not; then people, lots and lots of people will starve to death during the spring of 2011, not some time in 2035 or 2050, but next year; and there will be nothing anyone will be able to do about it. The food will not be in the bins and humans can not survive by eating money.
"All comments offered in the spirit of civil conversation are welcome!"
Could I perhaps suggest that blog posts adopt the same standard. How much of a "civil conversation" do you expect, when you refer to those with whom you disagree as "the lunatic fringe"?
I would like to take issue with the idea that there ever was a "scientific consensus" on global warming
.
I have asked journalists, politicians & alarmist lobbyists now totalling in the thousands to name 2 prominent scientists, not funded by government or an alarmist lobby who have said that we are seeing a catastrophic degree of warming & none of them have yet been able to do so. I extend this same invitation here.
There is not & never was a genuine scientific consensus on this, though scientists seeking government funds have been understandably reluctant to speak. If there were anything approaching a consensus it with over 31,000 scientists having signed the Oregon petition saying it is bunk, it would be easy to find a similar number of independent scientists saying it was true, let alone 2. The whole thing depends on a very small number of people & a massive government publicity machine, both very well funded by the innocent taxpayer.
Incidentally the reference to "Exxon funding" the sceptics is disengenuous. They have put up a couple of hundred thousand, the government a couple of billion. Anybody honestly criticising Exxon as excessive must be able to show they have produced 10,000 articles criticising the state in the same way.
Not really looking for anyone to answer, but this has been bothering me:
Why is okay to fear monger when it comes to (unsettled, if we are to be honest...science is never settled) Global Warming/Climate Change, but not okay to fear monger when it comes to terrorists (not unsettled)?
I wanted to say more, but it all becomes so tedious when people start with the, "Wingnut", "Denier", "...and you probably don't want poor people to have health care!!" arguments.
Thanks for the great article.
Let us imagine that it is a cultural perversion for people to widely share and consensually validate the pernicious belief that both "doing the right thing" and "doing the greedy thing" are virtues. I would submit to you that doing what is right is surely a virtue but doing the greedy thing is certainly not. The perversion in such circumstances is this: doing the right things is good, but this good behavior is often not rewarded. Alternatively, doing greedy things is not virtuous and yet is much more uniformly rewarded as if it were somehow good behavior.
Please consider that great wealth and the political power it purchases are derived from unbridled greed and that greediness is everywhere incentivized. Then we can see how greed rather than doing what is good comes to effectively rule the world in our time.
What if economic incentives rewarded doing right things and put at a disadvantage doing greedy things? Would that allow us to move forward along another path marked by mitigating the noticeably disasterous global ecological effects of rampant human selfishness and, thereby, to go a long way toward resolving the human-driven global challenges already visible in the offing?
What bothers a lot of people is the obsession with CO2 and the refusal to look for the _actual_ causes of what, afer all, is a _natural_ cycle.
The mediaeval warm period _ended_ 500 years BEFORE the internal combustion engine was even invented



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