Close to 5,000 barrels of oil a day are pouring into the Gulf of Mexico following the destruction of an offshore oil platform last week, according to the U.S. Coast Guard. Operator BP originally argued that the amount was far less (only 1,000 barrels or so), but today it concurred with the government's numbers.
Too bad they're both wrong, according to a group of independent analysts who are watching the spill via satellite and aerial data from their offices in West Virginia. They say the spill is far worse than either the company or the government has acknowledged so far.
Five thousand barrels a day is "a bare-bones limit," says John Amos, the president and founder of the nonprofit firm SkyTruth, which specializes in gathering and analyzing satellite and aerial data to promote environmental conservation.
Amos estimates that the amount of oil leaking into the Gulf is more like 20,000 barrels a day -- four times the Coast Guard estimate, and 20 times what BP originally claimed. That would add up to about 6 million gallons of oil so far. With oil still flowing, this spill threatens to be worse than the 1989 wreck of the Exxon Valdez, which dumped 11 million gallons into Alaska's Prince William Sound -- one of the nation's worst environmental disasters. (NRDC is calling for a temporary halt to plans for new offshore drilling in light of the Gulf explosion. See update below on President Obama's response.)
Amos previously worked as a consulting geologist, "using satellite imagery as a global geologic tool," in his words, to locate natural resources for major oil and mining corporations. Now he assists advocacy organizations, government agencies, and academic researchers with data collection and analysis.
SkyTruth receives a bit of foundation funding, and it also partners with green groups in the United States and overseas on specific projects. Last year, when a Montara oil rig exploded in the Timor Sea off the northern coast of western Australia, SkyTruth tracked and documented the spill for a coalition of groups advocating for protected marine reserves in the area. That spill lasted for 10 weeks.
"On this Gulf spill, we're not officially partnered with anyone," Amos says. "We are doing what we think is the best thing we can do right now, hoping at some point groups will work with us to make it sustainable over the long haul." He's assisted by a technical volunteer and consultations with professional cohorts.
The Deepwater Horizon drilling platform, about 130 miles southeast of New Orleans, exploded and caught fire on April 20 and sank a week ago today. There were 126 people on board; 11 are missing and likely dead. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency today because of the spreading oil slick -- which is expected to reach the state's coast late tonight -- and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano called it a spill of "national significance."
SkyTruth has access to much of (but not all) the same data that the government and BP are using. It's publicly available from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the agency's Aqua satellite, as well as other sources, including aerial flights.
Based on a map released from a flyover on Wednesday and compared to "the last good satellite image that we got, from the afternoon of April 27," Amos believes that the slick covers about 2,300 square miles. Official estimates to date have put the slick at about 2,200 square miles.
So how did Amos calculate the amount of oil leaking into the Gulf?
"We saw a published statement by a BP executive that about 3 percent of the slick was about 100 microns thick, and that the rest was about one or two molecules thick," he says. "We took him at his word on the microns, but not on the rest," because to see an observable sheen of oil at sea, the petro-goo needs to be at least 1 micron thick, explains Amos.
"A molecule's thickness is measured in billionths of a meter. For a micron, we're talking millionths of a meter," he says. And over thousands of square miles of ocean surface, even millionths of a meter add up.
Using BP's estimate that 3 percent of the slick's area is 100 microns thick, with an area of 2,200-2,300 square miles, Amos calculated that this part of the spill contains about 4.5 million gallons of oil.
Allowing for the remaining 97 percent of the slick to be 1 micron thick (the minimum necessary for that visible shimmer), Amos estimates another 1.5 million gallons of oil.
Total: 6 million gallons of slick, give or take a couple hundred thousand, and more oil pouring into the ocean every day.
To make even a rough estimate, Amos used BP's higher-end figure of 100 microns. But the oil is actually much thicker in some parts of the visible spill, he says. Aerial imagery is showing "thick ropy strands of oil, oil that's much thicker than 1 micron," according to Amos. "That's floating froth of oil mixed with water and probably bacteria ... the sloppy thick end of an oil spill where it could be anywhere from a millimeter thick to centimeters thick."
Amos says he doesn't question the Coast Guard's sincerity -- just its data analysis. "They are swamped by the magnitude of this spill and their effort to control it, and stop it from doing worse damage," he says. "I don't blame them for not questioning the numbers they've been provided by others, or spending their precious resources just trying to come up with better number."
From the Coast Guard's perspective, Amos say, "It's just a heck of a lot of oil."
The Coast Guard has not responded to requests for comment.
As for how BP arrived at its initial, much lower estimate of 1,000 barrels per day, Amos says: "I hope it was based on some real thoughtful analysis. But I haven't seen any justification."
UPDATE 4/30/2010: In response to calls from NRDC and others for a halt to drilling expansion in light of the latest disaster, the White House said today that no new offshore oil drilling will take place until a full investigation into the Deepwater Horizon explosion is completed.
Image: Gulf oil spill, captured on April 25 by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/MODIS Rapid Response Team
Is this why all the shouting, "Drill, baby, drill" Tea party guys?
How many other deep water rigs are there, and why are oil companies still thinking about commisioning more of them? It always pissed me off when people would say the solution to pollution is dilution. "Here's your sign"
Oh, great, here come all the green monsters using this catastrophe to make a political point...accidents happen, we still need oil and be able to afford it. A better use of time would be to go down there and help w/ cleanup and support.
See you at the beach Joel! Bring some detergent to wash the wings of the flamingos. Also note: It's not the politics, but the cost. This is going to cost billions and billions of dollars just to stabilize the situation with regards to wildlife deaths. And that wildlife includes commercial fishermen. It's not politics to admit this is a big problem, possibly one of the ten worst man-made environmental disasters in history.
Thank you Data Doctor! I feel just sick about the loss of wild life due to this oil spill of epic proportions. People like Joel are the same people who, after finally recongnizing the disasterous mistakes of the Bush Administration in regards to Iraq said, "Well, we are already in this war, and we can't do anything about that. Let's just figure out how to best get out as quickly as possible." Where is the forward thinking? Where is the consideration for future generations? We can no longer go on making decisions for today. We must think about our effect on tomorrow! Otherwise, we will continue attempting, unsuccessfully, to bail ourselves out of a sinking boat. There are so many viable resources for fuel and energy which can be put to use right now. Let's use this tragedy as an opportinity for positive, progressive growth and change!
It only takes one accident, no matter how many safeguards are in place. Life will go on, though, and the earth will be fine. We (humans) are just an irritating rash on its surface. And we (humans) and the current diverse life we share the earth with will be the only ones to suffer the consequences of our actions.
.....meanwhile, did anyone see Real Housewives of NYC last night? Major cat fight. And Tiger's back on the course (whew!) Lots of other things to pay attention to, right? Think I'll go get a burger and a beer at Hooters.
We're PATHETIC!!!!!!
Oh yeah...and Joel, I AM one of those GREEN MONSTERS. Don't mess with us, you arrogant pig. Care to share your address??? THIS IS NOT A POLITICAL ISSUE and you are a complete idiot. Please don't ever reproduce.
Dear Scott (Dodd),
I'm sorry. You are right. Appreciate your reality check.
Joel, I apologize for my rudeness. Your advice to get down to the coast to help with relief efforts is very sound practical advice.
I am very distressed thinking about the fish struggling to breath through their gills at this moment, the birds' panicked confusion with oil blocking their tiny snouts, and the sea turtles' already tumor-covered shells being irritated by oil contamination.
The only way I can deal with the sick sadness I feel today is black humour and lashing out. I feel helpless and I think it's too late to do anything about the damage we've caused on our beautiful, bountiful earth. I will go outside and play with my dog now.
ONE WAY TO VOLUNTEER FOR CLEAN-UP EFFORT:
I just signed up. The National Wildlife Federation (NWF) directs us to "Coalition to Restore Coastal Louisiana" (CRCL) site, and you register there.
Here's where you go:
http://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Wildlife-Conservation/Threats-to-Wildlife/Oi...
Hope to see you at the beach!!!
Connie :)
Joel must be one more brainwashed robot from the government that needs his mk ultra programing b slapped out of him.
Really in my wildest nightmares I never imagined this, why? I was in denial just like a lot of folks out there. Also, BP hid the facts by actually misleading our government and the media. It really doesnt matter at this particular moment if it is a political issue, we just need to work together to confront this disaster of mammoth proportions.
2300 square miles of solar (in appropriate locations) would give the equivalent power of about 600 coal plants - 6 billion KWH per day. This could power the US many times over! The energy would be clean and no one would have to be killed, trapped or blown up to produce it. In addition, it could be done in a way to minimize impact on wildlife. We have not embarked upon such a project, yet due to our (human's) complacency we have covered the equivalent space with an oil slick that has the potential to ruin some of the most pristine coastlines of this country - are we fools or what?
However, it is not too late. All citizens should be demanding the government to move to alternative clean energy immediately. The time for "clean" coal and off shore drilling has come to an end!
Does anyone know how what we as individuals can do to help? I found a website, "Oil Spill Volunteers" that I registered on, but I feel utterly helpless...and getting more angry by the minute to the slow reaction of both BP and our own government.
Hey Javagirl! Read my prior e-mail...go to National Wildlife Federation website (NWF)...I provided the link in my comment somewhere above.
Everyone......let's get down there and help! We have hands and brains and we are breathing - let's use what we've got!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
See you at the beach my friends!!!!!!!!!!!! It will be an emotional toll, I'm sure lots of crying and distress, but we'll meet alot of good people like us and we'll feel good about helping, instead of feeling angry and helpless at the oil companies and government.
Another way to make your voice heard...
Go to whitehouse.gov, click on "Contact" at bottom of page. Go through the prompts, on "Subject" choose "Policy Comment", another prompt appears where you select the policy topic you want, so choose "Enviroment"...then BE NICE and explain your concerns.
Here's that link:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/contact
Obama is much more sensitive to environmental issues than the previous administration, and this is your way to ask him to keep up the good fight. I wrote to him yesterday, and mentioned I think it was a mistake that he decided to expand drilling off our shores. Obama's administration has already overturned many things Bush did wrong concerning the environment and wildlife...Obama is getting things back on track as well as he can. Oil companies have lots of $$$$$$$$$$$ and lobbyists; it's not like he can wave a magic wand and make it all better.
Anyway, he wants our feedback, and the link above gives you that opportunity.
Going outside to play with my dog again.
This is so tragic. I wish I could say that I thought this disaster would change policies in DC, but I just don't have that hope. Too many years seeing greed win over the environment I guess. There is one evil carcass that hasn't been mentioned much in this disaster, one who is I'm sure directly responsible for all of this: Dick Cheney. Remember his secret meeting with energy guru's??? Noticed Halliburton is involved in this spill. Connecting the dots doesn't take much effort. Wherever you are hiding Cheney, I hope you drown in the muck you have created.
Barbara , You are right on the money with Cheney / Halliburton.
I read that Halliburton was working on Deepwater Horizon at the time of the blast.
See what Pensacola Florida Lawyer Mike Papantonio has to say about Cheney on MSNBC. Mr Papantonio also talks about how he is shocked that the news networks are not talking about this.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/04/dick-cheney-caused-gulf-oil-disas...
We cannot trust big oil companies to take care of the environment or tell us how much damage there really is. The only alternative is to move more aggressively towards clean and renewable energies. Here is one way to do it:
Specific Components of the Strategy:
Climate Change & Carbon Emissions, Alternative Energy, Markets of Recycling & Reuse, Toxic Chemicals and Contaminants, Alternative Energy & the Management of Non-Renewable Resource Management, Transportation: Hybrid & Electric Vehicles, Population Growth
This is a repeat post from another thread on this site (in case anyone notices):
The BP leak is an unprecedented environmental disaster in the making, and one whose scale and impact are unique to the petroleum industry. In the past, the NRDC has been very critical of the "conventional" biofuels industries in the U.S. (namely, corn-based ethanol and biodiesel). I hope this tragic occurrence causes the NRDC and its supporters to re-consider their position on the domestic biofuels industry.
There are plenty of valid arguments to be made in favor of carefully in our expansion of the biofuel industries and applying more forethought than we have in our development of petroleum resources (the Gulf today being an emphatic argument for careful progress). However, for the foreseeable future, every gallon of ethanol or biodiesel that we choose not to use for "environmental reasons" is a gallon of gasoline or diesel fuel that will be produced by the petroleum industry. Increasingly, this petroleum will come from high-impact sources such as the Alberta tar sands and the kind of deep water wells that led to the BP disaster.
Biofuels are certainly not perfect, but they are certainly better than petroleum fuels (particularly biodiesel, which has the highest net energy gain ratio and the least environmental impact of any available fuel, bio- or petroleum). The studies describing potential "indirect land use change" effects from biofuels that are used to discredit biofuels in environmental forums only describe theoretical impacts from biofuels, while the petroleum industry impact we are currently beginning to experience is as real as it gets.
This incident has highlighted in the starkest possible way the sad irony of the NRDC's decision (among others) to side with the petroleum industry on the issue of biofuels. Otherwise sensible and conscientious citizens were suckered into a snare that was carefully laid by the petroleum industry policy machine. The only silver lining I can see for this environmental catastrophe is that it might help us return to reality before it is too late: biofuels are better for the environment than petroleum fuels, plain and simple.
What a wonderfully appropriate (and potentially long lasting) monument to the political career of Richard Bruce Cheney, America's only two-term unelected vice president. The oil slick also neatly sums up the "presidency" of George W. Bush, America's only two-term unelected president. Lesson learned: never let TWO oil men run the country, especially when they have zero ethics and gained power through rigged elections. I guess Republican hatred of government and "regulations" really does have consequences.
Planetresource.net has a Eco friendly solution to clean up the tragedy British Petroleum has created, please watch the video animation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60bdQQQ3iVw and pass this along to as many people as you know.
One person can still make a difference in this world, is that simple interactions have a rippling effect. Each time this gets pass along, the hope in cleaning our planet is passed on.