Snow Job: Winter Doesn't Disprove Global Warming
First in an occasional series. Read more >>
The Claim
"It's the most severe winter storm in years, which would seem to contradict Al Gore's hysterical global warming theories." -- Sean Hannity, Fox News host
"Historic snow storm in Washington -- third this year -- where is Al Gore to explain it snows this heavily as a sign global warming is imminent." -- Newt Gingrich, former Republican Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives
The Context
A harsh winter in Washington, D.C., has, predictably, been the source of plenty of Al Gore jokes. Many climate skeptics have held up recent snow storms as evidence that climate change is not actually happening.
The Evidence
First things first -- weather is not climate. But the likelihood of certain weather patterns is determined by climate. What we've seen in the snow-covered middle Atlantic this winter isn't just possible in a warming world, but it was actually anticipated.
Let's go straight to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's very useful synthesis report, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. On the subject of winter storms, it says: "There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes. The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights. " (Emphasis ours.)
This report, it's worth mentioning, is no partisan affair. It was commissioned by the second Bush administration, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program itself was established under the first President Bush in 1990. The results were presented last year after President Obama took office.
Why would winter storms "become stronger and more frequent" in a warming world? Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters points us to a few key studies. According to the 2007 IPCC report, "water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970." More moisture means heavier snowstorms, so long as it's cold enough to snow. Which it still is in winter, even in Washington D.C. A couple of recent studies of snowstorm history over the past century bear this out.
The Verdict
Massive snowstorms can coincide with climate change. In fact, scientists specifically predicted that they would, and -- most importantly -- we say again, weather is not climate!
There are 2 sides on a coin,"JOE BASTARDI, ACCUWEATHER METEOROLOGIST: Well, first of all, let's take a look at what happened this winter, because there are a lot of people trying to now say that all the cold and the snow that we had was because of global warming. This was our forecast issued in July, and then I reissued it again in October. Notice the cold and snow in the mid-Atlantic states, snow down here in Texas, warm and dry up here, wet in California. Now, how did I come up with that? Was it global warming? No. We have an El Nino and a state of the ocean in the Pacific similar to the '60s and '70s. The solar cycles are doing something that is reminiscent to colder times. And amazingly, amazingly, the very thing that John Holdren opined on last year, blasting soot into the high altitudes over top of the Arctic, actually happened naturally with volcanic activity last year, led to a lot of blocking over the poles this year." so if the forcast made by meteorologist the snow in DC does not prove or disprove global warming but does make a person think twice about the so called consensus!
The claim that "weather is not climate" has been repeated over and over again by those trying to stem the growing tide of skeptics int he face of a bitter winter not seen for one hundred years.
While it's not the "Little Ice Age" of the Middle Ages it's hard to ignore that fact that past claims by the "experts" called for ever increasing temperatures (i.e. - the hockey stick effect).
In truth climate isn't weather, but one leads to the other. After all when you thing of the climate of Hawaii you think of balmy weather and people in bathing suits. So if the climate is changing we should see weather following. So let's put it to the test. I recently did a study of the temperatures for Kodiak, Alaska for the past one hundred years. I found no evidence that the weather (or the climate by extension) was changing. There was a perfect cyclical variation around the average. (You can view the data on Weatherbot.blogspot.com.
Climate Changers are the evil doo ers now.
This neocon like enviro war is the enviro WMD lie that will do to the left what Bush did to the right.
How dare you try and scare my kids!!!!
Preserve, protect and respect nature, not lead us to a false war against the air.
Quoting the IPCC is kinda like quoting the National Enquirer.
Where is Al Gore? Why isn't he willing to stand up and defend his agenda and proported facts? He can answer now or after November of this year.
i see the skeptics aren out or should i say goons for big oil and coal that the only ones that do believe in GW!
Would you guys stop futtzing with the thermostat!? First it's too cold then it's too hot. Then it's too hot when it's cold and too cold when it's hot.
If your hot take off your shirt, if your cold put on a coat but just leave the d@mn thermostat ALONE before you screw it up!
Somehow I'm still suprised at the number (or at least the frequency of comments from) climate change skeptics. As someone with a science background, this is not complicated, and a couple basic science classes should make it obvious that a continual build-up of CO2 and other pollutants are not only creating a greenhouse effect, but are also REALLY bad for us and, I don't know, most other living things.
And don't we all agree industrialization and lead to an exponential increase in the production of CO2 and other pollutants?
Even if somehow this logic doesn't work for some people, and they want to argue over winter storms, can we all agree pollutants are bad?? Can we all agree we need more environmentally and economically sustainable methods of running our societies?
It seems very clear that we need to change the way we do things, no matter which side of the horse you want to be on.
World May Not Be Warming, Say Scientists
http://tinyurl.com/ykts9gz
Reading the viewer comments to this, the question that comes to mind is why anyone tries to influence the opinion of someone else?
The problem with Sean Hannity, and those of his ilk, is that he is free to spout whatever nonsense -- and to be fair occasional sense -- he feels like. Rational individuals always lose when they point out how he's wrong, and hope that someone is listening. He's not. You can point out how non sensical his beliefs are but by the time you do he's off spouting another one.
Kudos to the right wing of this country for figuring out that the key to getting the vote out is to rile up the voters by making them believe things. It doesn't matter what's factual, it only matters what you think. I love America!
Truth is what is eternal, everlasting and unchanging.“A squared plus B squared equals C squared” is an eternal truth, just as Nature’s 5 billion year old powers are an eternal truth and you foolish doomers are insisting that Nature’s powers have changed to be weaker after 5 billion years. History is laughing NOW for thinking that man is the measure of all things as our distant cousin’s thoughts of thousands of years ago. Scientific consensus is not unchanging truth, it is an ever-changing ethical truth and if silly doomers think this 24-year-old ignorant fear-fantasy is going to be sustainable with the voters for another quarter of a century, then YOU doomers are the deniers. Go ahead, say “they say” all you want. Voter consensus trumps “scientific” consensus for it is the voters who ultimately determine what science policy is in our society. Get ahead of the curve doomers and be responsible enviros who respect Nature, not like Neanderthal climate cowards for the history books.
Great, another dooming END OF DAYS witch burner with another personal and deflective definition of climate change. A "crisis" is a crisis is a crisis and you cowards will pay for this false fear mongering in the courts.
Let's agree to stop this CO2 insanity that is taking us back thousands of years and preserve, protect and respect Nature, not save it from impending doom like cave men.Have the stones to be brave and face the future of energy and population with courage, not fear.
“I have hundreds of threatening e-mails", said Stephen Schneider, a climatologist at Stanford University in California.
The backlash has begun and history is cursing each and every one of you hysterical and selfish practitioners of fear
The CO2 concentration in the air is well documented to be increasing, and at an accelerating rate to boot. The ramifications of this are clear to those who study it, and include less predictable weather, a less stable jet stream, and significant overall warming (that will raise the oceans and have a lot of negative effects on both the ocean and land including prolonged drought in many areas). Nobody is getting famous by sounding the alarm. I get tired of the self important dopes that want to be the first to claim they predicted this or that, and that we have nothing to fear because there is no harm goign to come of climate change. We have a need to change, but there is no need to fear change. If we don't change, things will be much different, and many will suffer. And the poor will suffer the most. That's just how it is. We need to stop poo-pooing climate change. It is a real and measurable phenomenon (regardless of how many isolated locations you can find that don't demonstrate it, overall it's a clear and measurable trend.)
The best comment here is from "commonsense". CO2 is a pollutant that can't be ignored. Argue to the cows come home on whether it's the weather or the climate or both or none, but at the end of the day, if we don't stop polluting our planet it will be our peril. We owe it to our children and future generations to clean up our act. Read this http://bit.ly/cFyltt for some more insight to the damage we are doing to our precious planet.
The 11 year solar cycle has periods of more sunspots and a small amount more warmth from the sun and less sunspots and a small amount less warmth. The present cooler 11 year solar cycle probably indicates a few solar cycles with a slightly cooler sun. This will appear to slow global warming but then when the solar cycle changes into more sunspots later in the 21st Century along with a lot more greenhouse gases there will be a sudden large increase in the temperature of the planet. When the ozone hole closes up over Antarctica about 2050 then the main part of Antarctica will begin warming up. Greenland could all melt by 2100 if there is runaway methane release. Several summers of arctic expeditions shows that from the arctic ocean shelf methane has started bubbling up to the surface. A large increase of methane has not been factored into the computer models of global warming thus the scientists have been underestimating the extreme of warming that is coming. Methane is 30 times as strong a greenhouse warmer than CO2 and a runaway feedback may be forming as in the Permian Extinction during the early dinosaur days. During the Permian era 1000 miles of volcanoes through coalfields created super global warming. Anaerobic sulfur gas producing bacteria swept the ocean and poisoned the ocean and air; 95% of life died in the ocean, 90% on land. This sulfur gas bacteria has now started expanding in dead zones off of Namibia, Alaska and elsewhere and will sweep the oceans poisoning the air. I have read of two different psychologists in the late 70’ to mid 80’s using hypnosis to take people to the 2100. About 2/3rds of the people saw a poisoned atmosphere and super crowded domed and underground cities with most of Earths life dead outside the domes. This hypnosis occurred in a period when people were worried about nuclear war not global warming. Read Mass Dreams of the Future. Only the rich elite and their chosen technicians and soldiers will be given space in the underground and domed cities. 2/3rds of the population will be left to die slow painful deaths by poisoned atmosphere. In the early 22nd century perhaps less than 1 per cent of the population will be taken in space ships to 2-3 colony worlds on other star systems. This will include some of the more spiritually realized ecological types in their next lifetime. From the late 60’s onward quite a number of spiritually minded have dreamed of a world wide cataclysm and space ships coming to take the chosen away to safety to world in other star systems. Of course these dreams also symbolize mindful meditation liberating one from the cycle of rebirth and suffering.
What needs to change the most is our relationship with this beautiful planet. Until we realize that it is an intricate and complex ecosystem of which we are a part, nothing will change. I do believe global warming is happening and that things will continue to escalate until we build a relationship with nature again. Until then, humans will remain woefully ignorant of our dependence on nature and of our connection to it.