Seven months ago, Arizona won an important battle in the fight to position itself as the "solar capital" of the nation.

The legislature passed, and the governor signed into law, a major tax credit for manufacturers of renewable energy equipement. Together with a Renewable Energy Standard (RES) requiring utilities to generate 15 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by the year 2025, Arizona attraced the first Chinese solar manufacturing company -- Suntech, that nation's largest -- to build a plant in North America.

In a November press release explaining its decision, Suntech credited Arizona's renewable energy policies, "particularly its Renewable Energy Standard."

In a surprising move, however, the state legislature is now considering a bill that, as opponents point out, could end the RES program. House Bill 2701 would redfine "renewable" to include nuclear power.

The state's largest utility currently gets 27 percent of its electricty from the Palo Verde nuclear plant just outside of Phoenix. Under HB 2701, the utility would already be in compliance with the RES mandate, meaning no further renewable power plants -- solar, wind, whatever -- would need to be built.

Republican Kris Mayes chairs the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC), which crafted the current RES. Mayes says HB 2701 "would surely be the death knell for advancing solar energy in the state."

Solar: An Innocent Bystander

Mayes could well be right, although the solar industry isn't the intended target in this political drive-by shooting. The legislature has the ACC in its cross-hairs.

"Representative [Debbie] Lesko doesn't want to discourage jobs or harm the solar industry in any way," says a spokesperson for Lesko, who introduced HB 2701. The spokesperson, who agreed to talk on condition of anonymity, explained that the bill will create two RES standards, a conflict that will inevitably be decided in court.

"This bill will create a legislative RES, which we believe is appropriate," said the spokesperson.

Behind the turf fight is a conservative ideology that is opposed to the government mandates that result in increased costs to utilities -- which can be passed on to rate-payers. According to her spokesperson, Rep. Lesko and other bill supporters believe that utilities will invest in renewable power because of market forces.

But a 2007 study from the Berkeley National Laboratory casts doubt on that belief.

The report compared actual solar installations made between 2000 and 2006 in states with and without an RES supporting solar (California was excluded from the study because of its other progressive solar policies).

As seen in the chart below, states with an RES had more than double the solar installations of states lacking such a mandate.

If, without an RES, solar installations do drop, sponsors of HB 2701 say they will use other means to incentivize renewable energy.

Asked what incentives are being discussed, Lesko's spokesperson says, "To be honest, there isn't a game plan on how to get there."

Critics of the Critics

Tor Valenza, aka, "Solar Fred," writes a popular blog about solar power for Renewable Energy World. He ranks states on a five-star system according to solar-friendly public policies.

Asked for his thoughts on HB 2701, Valenza replied:

If utilities stopped giving rebates because they could meet their renewable portfolio obligations with nuclear, that would kill a lot of solar companies. ...[and] it would discourage citizens from going solar.

The bill, he said, would reduce the state's ranking from four down to two stars. (He added that the only reason it wouldn't drop further was because of the annual amount of sunshine in Arizona provides a high solar potential.)

Fast-Track to Oblivion

The bill will likely sail through both committees to which it's been assigned in the Arizona House. Sponsors of HB 2701 chair both committees and comprise a majority of committee members. The same scenario awaits on the floor of both House and Senate. The bill has 52 sponsors and co-sponsors, including the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate.

Ideological Creep

In 2001, Arizona was one of the first states to implement an RES. Today, some 32 states and Washington, D.C., have adopted the measure in some form. If HB 2701 passes, Arizona will claim another first: the only state to count electricity from an existing nuclear power plant toward an RES goal -- driving a stake through the heart of what has been a successful program.

The danger here goes beyond Arizona's fortunes in the race to become the solar capital of the nation. The state's pull-back could inspire other states -- where anger at "big government" simmers, and occasionally boils over -- to follow Arizona's example and simply abandon the field.

If that happens, the next solar capitol won't be in Arizona, California, or New Mexico. It'll be in Zhejiang, Guangdong, or Jiangsu.